SMMT forecasts a slow down in LCV registrations
Latest forecasts by the SMMT indicate a slowing down of the LCV market compared to last year.
The SMMT predicts that 2017 will see a drop in the LCV market of 2.8%, compared to the 2016 figure. In addition, a further near-flatline is predicted for 2018 with LCV registrations predicted to be 0.361 million units, 1.1% down on the 2017 forecast.
Likewise, 2019 predictions indicate a further drop to 0.354 million, down 5.8% compared to 2016’s 0.376 peak level, the Society added.
So far this year, 4x4s have witnessed a -46.5% change, vans <= 2.0t -25.5%, vans >2.0-25.t -10.7%. However, vans > 2.5-3.5t and pickups have seen a marginal rise of 0.1% and 0.4% respectively, year-to-date.
Manufacturers IVECO, Vauxhall, Renault have experienced some of the greatest reductions in registrations in 2017 compared to last year, year-to-date, while Toyota, Fiat and Peugeot have all bucked the market trend and seen relatively significant rises in registrations with +52.5%, +12.61% and +12.26% respectively.
The overall market drop predictions reflect the SMMT’s forecasts for cars and diesel cars, which the Society says will diminish in registrations by a greater degree than the LCV market. 2017 car registrations are predicted to end 4.7% down on 2016’s level of 2.693 million, for example.
Forecasts will next be revised in January 2018 and posted during the weekend 2 February. Forecasts are revised on a quarterly basis in January, April, July and October.
Light commercial vehicles (LCV, to 3.5t gvw) at 0.376m, was 0.372m at 2015 and level was 0.240 in 2012.