Progress in the LCV market’s post-pandemic recovery has been arrested due to the ongoing supply issues in the sector.
Just 23,606 vans were registered in July; down 14.8% on last year and, more tellingly, 4.0% on the pre-pandemic five-year average.
Demand for larger vans weighing more than 2.5-3.5 tonnes, which accounted for 70.5% of all commercial registrations in the month, was down 5.2% to 16,653 vehicles. But registrations of vans at 2.0 tonnes or under were down by a larger 38.2% to 907 units while those of vans weighing 2.0-2.5 tonnes fell 41.4% to 2,680 vehicles.
While July marked the first decline for the sector since December 2020, the market is expected to recover. SMMT’s latest quarterly forecast anticipates the LCV market to increase by 24.3% to 363,880 units in 2021. But the forecast has been reduced by 1.5% from April’s forecast of 369,000 units, and the new forecast would put it slightly under 2019’s total registrations.
Year-to-date LCV registrations remain up 57.5% on last year – some 78,542 more units – with the market also increasing by 1.1% on the pre-pandemic 2015-2019 five-year average. In total 215,119 new vans have been registered so far in 2021 and the SMMT said that growth was being driven by fleet renewals or expansions, notably to meet rising demand for online delivery business and the construction sector.
Mike Hawes, SMMT chief executive, said: “While July’s decline in the new van market is disappointing, it must be viewed in context against the semiconductor shortages currently challenging the global industry. Given the shift to home-deliveries, strength of construction sector and as the economy opens up further, we expect the market to end the year almost back to 2019 levels. Fleet renewal is critical, not only to ensure the newest, cleanest and greenest vans enter UK roads, but to enable the UK to meet its ambitious green targets.”
