Analysis of last-mile delivery data over the Black Friday and Christmas holiday sales rush shows the challenges and opportunities in the last-mile of retail distribution.
Geotab has reviewed data taken from over four million connected vehicle subscriptions during the most intense retail periods of the year, from Black Friday through to Boxing Day, across 2020 to 2023. Its Driving the Last Mile report reveals insights into the trends shaping the delivery landscape and how the delivery sector copes with the demands of the period.
As you’d expect, the analysis shows a spike in the real-world use of LCVs during this sales peak, indicating resource strain on last-mile delivery operations.
Notably, a vehicle makes on average 11% more trips during Black Friday week and 9% more during Christmas.
The data also showed a significant uptick in idling ratios and fuel consumption, including CO2 emissions, during these periods, an increase in shorter trips but with more frequent stops, adding complexity to fleet management.
Over Black Friday week and Christmas week in 2023, Geotab saw a recorded average consumption of 46 litres of fuel for petrol and diesel vehicles, above the baseline of 44 litres of fuel consumed in a ‘normal’ week. Assuming the average cost of fuel of £1.50 per litre, the additional cost is £3 per vehicle per week.
Edward Kulperger, senior vice president of Europe at Geotab, said: “Geotab’s data reveals the intense pressure on last-mile delivery, with Black Friday and holiday deliveries pushing fleets to their limits, and companies seeking to balance increased consumer demand and addressing the environmental concerns that shape consumer preferences.
“Companies that thrive in this peak retail season are those that leverage technology to not just meet demand, but to anticipate it. From predictive maintenance that keeps vehicles rolling, to data driven insights that promote safer and more sustainable roads, Geotab is empowering businesses to navigate the complexities of modern delivery and redefine what’s possible in the last mile,” added Kulperger.
The last-mile sector continues to grow in line with market forecasts and hasa current valuation of US$79.9bn (c. £64bn) and a predicted CAGR of 8.1% up to 20301. However, this growth comes with challenges, including a projected spike in emissions from delivery traffic and traffic congestion in major cities.
The World Economic Forum estimates that emissions from delivery traffic in the world’s 100 largest cities will surge by 32% by 2030, while traffic congestion is predicted to increase by more than 21%. That’s the equivalent of 11 additional minutes of commute time for passengers every day globally, and considerably more for delivery fleets.
Geotab’s report points to data-driven strategies as critical for optimising cost and performance. Improved route planning, demand forecasting, and vehicle utilisation lead to lower operational costs and environmental impacts, alongside higher customer satisfaction through reliable, on-time delivery.
“Understanding the dynamics of fleet utilisation in real-time is essential for the sustainable evolution of our cities. Not only do businesses benefit from decreased operational costs and increased efficiency, but cities also gain from smarter development, and the environment sees less strain due to reduced congestion and emissions,” Kulperger added.
