As predicted by Manheim, November saw a significant volume increase of stock entering the wholesale market, an impressive 32% more than in November 2013. This heralds a welcome return to seasonal de-fleet patterns which have not been seen for several years. Manheim states this return to seasonal de-fleeting follows the traditional time lag post September plate change and is a further sign of confidence and normality returning to the market.
‘It is heartening to see the typical seasonal de-fleet pattern returning this year,’ commented James Davis, director of commercial vehicles at Manheim. ‘Supply continues to track behind demand, so it promises a stable end to the year and a fantastic kick start to 2015, just as we predicted earlier in the year.
‘Traditionally, the plate changes act as a catalyst for new vehicle purchasing. This then leads to an increase of ex-fleet vehicles coming to market as they are replaced. With cars, this tends to be more significant and happens very quickly, but with vans there is usually a six to eight week time lag, during which commissioning and decommissioning occurs.’
Manheim also found that while the overall performance of the CV market remained strong in November, an increase in older vans affected values in certain segments.
Compared with the previous month, the average sale price of large panel vans (over three tonnes) fell by 13.7%, to £4,871. This was due to an increase in age and mileage, with nearly half of the large panel vans sold during the month having an average age of more than seven years (89 months). 52% of all small panel vans sold had an average age of eight years (97 months).
While the significant increase in older vans affected selling price in both large panel vans (over three tonnes) and small panel vans, car derived vans performed well in November. Car derived vans saw average age and mileage drop (by six months and 6,000 miles respectively). Month-on-month, the average sale price of car derived vans increased by 8%, or £294, to £3,624.
‘We believe 2015 will be the year of transition, leading to a return to true normality for the van market in 2016. The market has stayed strong in recent weeks, despite the volume increases, and I predict that it will continue to remain robust into the new year. Of course, conversion rates for high value and high damage vans will dip off due to seasonality,’ added Davis.
‘The de-fleet volume increases do mean that vendors should stay close to the market in the coming weeks to ensure their vans are prepared to the best standard and valued correctly in order to sell first time for maximum money.’