The wholesale van marketplace in 2022 will ease over the next 12 months, returning to more seasonal norms, according to Cox Automotive.
While 2021 saw a number of record-breaking moments at Manheim, including some of the highest selling prices in living memory, conditions in 2022 will feel quite different.
Furthermore, the business says the van market can look forward to a “tsunami of pandemic-worn Euro 5 vans” this year as supply and demand begins to rebalance. As much as 50% of Manheim’s stock sold during 2022 is predicted to be Euro 5 or older product, compared to 41% seen in 2021.
Matthew Davock, director of commercial vehicles at Cox Automotive, confirmed: “The well-publicised rollout of low emissions zones around the UK will deliver more used Euro 5 vans into the used wholesale marketplace, but at a cost. Despite market softening, buyers will still have to pay higher prices than pre-pandemic levels for ‘pandemic-worn’ vans that have higher miles and lower standards of condition.”
Davock also predicted that Euro 6 and electrified vans will be much higher on the priority list for buyers throughout 2022, due to consumers being more educated and aware of the future landscapes and rollout timescales for low-emission zones.
He continued: “The rollout of low-emissions zones in cities around the UK is already having an impact, with many buyers reporting increasing consumer requests for only Euro 6 compliance and electrified vehicles.”
With new records set over the last year in terms of mileage and condition, Davock predicted this will play a much bigger part in 2022. In H2 2022, as much as 70% of auction catalogues will be dominated with stock that has over 100,000 miles. Some reports suggest average vans have covered 40% more miles than previously predicted and contracted, due to overall supply and pandemic challenges.
Seasonality will also play a much bigger part in 2022.
Davock added: “As the significant price rises are matched with reduced market support and financial buoyancy, this will affect some stock profiles for first-time auction conversations, when retail activity shows signs of softening.”
Wholesale volumes are not expected to increase in the first half of 2022, but Manheim does expect van returns to be 25-30% higher than 2021 averages by H2 2022. Reports suggest over 405,000 new vans have been ordered and destined for the UK marketplace.
Davock elaborated: “Most of these vans haven’t yet been built, which will eventually result in a tsunami of new vans arriving that will transform the current market’s future into one that looks very bright over the next three years from a volume perspective.”
Manheim’s 2021 auction results
Results from Manheim show 2021 was the strongest-ever year for the business. Compared to 2019 averages, the number of sellers rose 18% to 561 while buyers were up 19% to 2,771; marking two new record totals for the firm.
Meanwhile, 18 months of 100% digital commercial sales at Manheim led to stock selling 44% quicker, or seven days faster than 2019 averages throughout last year.
The average selling price of a used van in 2021 was £9,907; up 30% or £2,282 compared to 2020, and 66% or £3,919 stronger than 2019 records, when the average price of a van was just £5,988.
Davock added: “Similar to the used car market, consumers are paying considerably higher prices than they were even in the first year of the pandemic in 2020, and significantly higher than the last pre-pandemic year of 2019. Not only are consumers paying more for used vans, but they’re also buying older vans with higher mileage, which is not necessarily what they want or need for driving in some cities today.”
The average age of a used van last year was 62 months, up from an average of 60 months in 2020 and an average of 61 months in 2019. Meanwhile, the average mileage of a used van last year was 75,897 miles, up from an average of 71,118 miles in 2020, and an average of 76,373 miles in 2019.
The 2021 average first-time conversion also increased to 82%; an increase from 78% in 2020, and up from 76% in 2019.
