Fleet expectations for electric van growth are “almost flat”, as commercial operators face ongoing hurdles with vehicle range, charging infrastructure and payload capacity.

The 2026 Arval Fleet and Mobility Observatory Barometer reveals that light commercial vehicle (LCV) operators predict just 16% of their fleets will be electric within three years. This represents a minimal two percentage point increase from last year’s survey, and a mere one percentage point rise from 2024.

The sluggish outlook indicates a divide between industry reality and government targets. Under the Government’s Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) mandate, manufacturers are required to achieve a 58% electric mix for new van sales by 2029.

John Peters, head of Arval Mobility Observatory in the UK, said the research showed fleet difficulties in moving away from traditional, internal combustion-engined vans.

“It is widely recognised that fleets face significant challenges when it comes to electric van adoption in areas including range, payload and charging. These issues cause sometimes significant operational difficulties, so the doubts expressed by our respondents and preference for long-established fuels are understandable.”

In stark contrast, operators expect fossil-fuelled vehicles to keep dominating fleets. The research indicates that petrol and diesel vehicle numbers will continue to grow at 74% – an increase of 3%.

Peters added: “There is clearly a quite dramatic mismatch between government and fleet operator expectations.”

The research has been published just days after the Government published its much-anticipated ZEV mandate review, which explores softer EV targets for both cars and vans.

However, Arval said the forecasts among the van fleets surveyed were “probably overly pessimistic”.

Peters elaborated: “The Arval consulting team works closely with many fleets on electrification and the potential for adoption is much higher than generally recognised across the sector, if not approaching ZEV mandate levels. Many of the apparent problems can be solved with slight changes in approach while the significant advantages of electric vans are perhaps unappreciated. We are also seeing new models enter the market which present opportunities for operator fleets.”

Notably, Arval Mobility Observatory Barometer shows international expectations for LCV electrification are even less optimistic than the UK – with the European average forecast at 14% electric and 74% diesel, and globally at 11% and 80% respectively.

What percentage of your LCV fleet do you expect to be the following fuel types within three years?