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Van market grows 11.4% but SMMT warns electric target gap will double by 2028

  • 5 November 2026
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  • Natalie Middleton

The UK’s new LCV market grew 11.4% in October, rising for the seventh month in a row, according to new figures from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and

Van market grows 11.4% but SMMT warns electric target gap will double by 2028

The UK’s new LCV market grew 11.4% in October, rising for the seventh month in a row, according to new figures from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT).

A total of 25,510 vans, pickups and 4x4s joined the road, helping to push year-to-date volumes up 4.8% to 276,885 registrations.

Large vans continued to deliver the bulk of volume growth, up 12.9% to 18,560 units in October – representing 72.8% of the overall market. Medium vans rose by 14.3% to 3,825 units, but 4x4s actually achieved the largest percentage increase, more than doubling (up 104.3%) to 899 units.

There were declines, however, with small van deliveries falling 11.7% to 462 units and pickup registrations dropping 17.7% to 1,764 units. Pickup demand remains far weaker across the year, down 52.9% on the same period in 2025 after tax changes to treat double-cabs as cars for Benefit-in-Kind and capital allowance purposes.

Battery electric van (BEV) uptake achieved its best-ever October, up 58.0% to 3,369 registrations and delivering a 12.9% market share. This bolstered the year-to-date share at 11.0%.

The SMMT noted the significant growth, driven by more than 40 different zero-emission models, along with the Government’s Plug-in Van Grant and Depot Charging Scheme, which have also provided essential support to buyers.

But the business group warned that manufacturers have been forced to provide heavy discounts to avoid even more punitive ZEV mandate compliance costs – and noted that year-to-date BEV share is still less than half the ZEV mandate target for 2026 with latest industry outlook expecting gap to widen in 2027 and 2028.

The most recent outlook for the overall new LCV market expects 4.2% growth to 329,000 units this year, with BEVs weighing up to 3.5 tonnes achieving a 10.4% share – 13.6 percentage points off the 24% mandated target. Further BEV growth is expected in the medium term, reaching a 14.9% share in 2027 and 18.8% in 2028, but still less than half the respective 34% and 46% annual targets, with the gap only widening.

The SMMT has called for the ZEV mandate review to urgently bring meaningful change to assure market and industry viability. With a government response to the consultation due by the end of the year, it says that a more realistic trajectory is needed to avoid future market uncertainty, protect new product investment and ensure competitive model choice – all of which are crucial to remove older, more polluting vans from the road sooner.

A long-term commitment to purchase incentives is also fundamental to bolster operator confidence, while rollout of LCV-suitable public charging needs to grow rapidly. Lengthy waits for depot grid connections, meanwhile, must be addressed and deserve prioritisation under plans for GB Grid, given the sector’s critical role in driving the UK economy and decarbonisation.

Mike Hawes, SMMT chief executive, said: “Seven months of new van market growth reflects a slight recovery in buyer confidence after 2025, but the fragility of this confidence makes the EV transition particularly tough to deliver. While electric van uptake is accelerating rapidly, demand remains far behind the optimistic and unrealistic expectations of the mandate.

“The Government’s review must provide clear and meaningful trajectory change before the year ends, not marginal tinkering, to avoid damaging the market, and the businesses and economic growth which depend on this sector.”

Mirroring his sentiment, Sue Robinson, chief executive of the National Franchised Dealers Association (NFDA), said: “Seven consecutive months of growth is encouraging, particularly alongside the strong increase in electric van registrations. However, the continued decline in pickup demand and the gap between electric van uptake and mandated targets demonstrate that challenges remain.

“The Government’s ongoing review of the ZEV mandate must deliver realistic targets, alongside greater investment in charging infrastructure and support for businesses making the transition to electric vehicles.”

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